A wide range of uranyl–peroxide nanocapsules have been synthesized using very simple reactants in basic media; however, little is known about the process to form these species. We have performed a density functional theory study of the speciation of the uranyl ions under different experimental conditions and explored the formation of dimeric species via a ligand exchange mechanism. We shed some light onto the importance of the excess of peroxide and alkali counterions as a thermodynamic driving force towards the formation of larger uranyl–peroxide species.